INDIANAPOLIS – Nab a seat in Congress once and you’re likely to win reelection again and again, challengers or not. But three of Indiana’s nine congressional seats are guaranteed to change hands in this year’s elections.
That’s because incumbent Reps. Jim Banks, Larry Bucshon, and Greg Pence — all Republicans — are leaving their spots in the U.S. House for other pursuits. And Rep. Victoria Spartz said she wouldn’t seek reelection but reversed her decision just before filing deadlines.
The exit announcements have prompted dozens of Hoosier hopefuls to put their names on the primary election ballot. Election Day is May 7.
Open seats attract a bevy of competitive candidates because “they recognize the opportunity to get in” to office, said Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis.
Incumbents often enjoy major advantages: stockpiled donations, political connections, an experienced campaign team, and more. In Congress, the incumbent typically wins nine out of 10 times, according to Wilson.
Turnover is typically limited. But the number of open seats will spur more change in Indiana.
The turnover within the Hoosier congressional delegation could be the most significant “in a long time,” said Mike Wolf, acting director of the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics at Purdue University Fort Wayne. “That’s a big deal when we think about what it means for representative democracy. It’s a huge shift here,” he added.
And it’s a shift largely decided during the primary.
Indiana lawmakers further strengthened the relatively safe districts during redistricting in 2021, advantaging Democrats in two districts and Republicans in the rest.
Read the complete Leslie Bonilla Muñiz story for the Indiana Capital Chronicle, here.
